At the heart of the misunderstanding was the notion that herd immunity could be achieved by allowing the virus to spread unchecked through the population, resulting in widespread infection and subsequent immunity. However, Whitty emphasized that this approach was not only unethical but also impractical and ineffective, as it would have led to an "extraordinarily high loss of life" without guaranteeing the desired outcome.
Whitty attributed the confusion to a "mashed-up understanding" of some modeling papers that explored the concept of herd immunity as a theoretical scenario, not as a policy recommendation. He acknowledged that some ministers and others, including then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, inadvertently fueled the misconception by publicly discussing herd immunity as a potential strategy.
To address this issue, Whitty sent WhatsApp messages to various government officials, including Johnson and Matt Hancock, the then-health secretary, urging them to refrain from discussing herd immunity publicly. He recognized the complexity of the concept and the high likelihood of misinterpretation.
The idea of herd immunity as a means to rapidly eliminate COVID-19 was deemed "nonsensical" by Whitty. He pointed out that even after the devastating first wave of the pandemic, only about 20% of the population had been infected. Additionally, the assumption that post-infection immunity was permanent for COVID-19 proved to be false, further invalidating the herd immunity approach.
Whitty also addressed the Great Barrington Declaration, a statement signed by a group of scientists and others who advocated for a herd immunity strategy. He expressed his disagreement with their approach, stating that it was "flawed at multiple levels."
In conclusion, the concept of herd immunity, while important for epidemiological understanding, was misinterpreted and misrepresented during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The confusion surrounding herd immunity led to unnecessary public concern and highlighted the importance of clear and accurate communication during public health crises.